Time Machine doesn't make room on backup drive, even though I have less data to back up
For Sonoma 14.6.1, there's this info from If the Time Machine backup disk for your Mac is full - Apple Support (CA) :
If the Time Machine backup disk for your Mac is full
Your first Time Machine backup includes everything on your Mac. After that, Time Machine finds and saves only new and changed items, so the backups become smaller. Also, as your backup disk fills up, Time Machine deletes older backups to make room for new ones. You may be able to use Time Machine for a long time before running out of space.
If you do run out of space, it’s best to connect a new backup disk. After you connect the new disk, open Time Machine settings, then select it as your Time Machine backup disk.
Time Machine itself says :
Time Machine backs up your computer and keeps local snapshots for the past 24 hours, daily backups for the past month and weekly backups for all previous months. The oldest backups and any local snapshots are deleted as space is needed.
Muninn HD is my MacBook Pro's drive, Clio is an external SSD formatted as APFS by Time Machine. Both are nominally 500 GB. Clio has some backups on it already.
I recently found a lot of unneeded ISO and disk image files that I copied to a USB stick and deleted from Muninn HD. This gave me lots of room for music files from an old Mac mini that I intend to copy to my iPhone.
As of this screen shot, you see that Munin has 365.5 GB of data, and Clio has 473 GB.
Since I deleted lots of data (80 GB or so) from Muninn I should have lots of room on Clio, right?
Then I get this Backup Not Completed alert:
If I now have even less data to back up, and Time Machine supposedly deletes older backups to "make room for new ones", then why won't it do some housekeeping and make room on Clio?
The last time this happened and I really wanted a current backup, I had to erase everything on Clio and start a new backup from scratch. It took forever.
Is there a way to get Time Machine to do its job as described by Apple?
P.S. — Bonus points if you know why I named them "Muninn" and "Clio" without googling them.
MacBook Pro 13″, macOS 14.6